2013: The Year of Decisive Outcomes

• Indian National Congress (INC): Achieved a clear majority by securing the highest number of constituencies.
• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) & Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]: Both parties lagged behind the INC, ending up with an equal and significantly lower count of seats compared to the frontrunner.
• Overall, the data indicates a strong consolidation of votes in favor of the INC, leading to their majority in the assembly.

2018: A Shift in Popular Vote Dynamics

• The BJP emerged as the winner, gaining a substantial increase in constituencies won and surpassing the INC by a notable margin.
• INC had consistent vote share compared to 2013 but experienced a decrease in the number of constituencies won.
• Popularity vs. Preference: Despite losing the election, the INC actually led in the popular vote, meaning it had a marginally higher total vote share percentage compared to the BJP, suggesting close contests in several areas.

2023: A Surge in Constituencies Won

• The INC not only led in the popular vote but also secured significantly more constituencies than the BJP, winning over twice as many seats as the BJP, despite only a 6.2 percentage point lead in vote share.
• BJP Maintained a relatively stable vote share from the previous election but faced a sharp decline in the number of constituencies won.
• Insight: The disproportionate increase in constituencies for the INC, relative to their vote share margin, points towards effective vote distribution and success in key constituencies.

The Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY), led by Rahul Gandhi and the Congress Party, covered 21 assembly constituencies in Karnataka. The Yatra spanned 511km in Karnataka over 22 days, moving from Gundlupet constituency to Raichur Rural constituency.

The map shows that the Yatra went through constituencies that the INC didn't win much in 2018. Out of 21 constituencies, the INC won in only 5, while the BJP won in 12 and the JD(S) in 4. But in 2023, things changed. The INC won in 15 of these constituencies and joined forces with SKP in Melukote, making their total 16.

If we look at the charts, we see that constituencies visited by the BJY had almost the same vote share as other constituencies. This may imply that the Yatra wasn't all that beneficial for INC. But if we compare this to the last election, there's a big change. The vote share in constituencies visited by BJY went up a lot (by about 9.78%) from 2018 to 2023. In other constituencies, it went up too, but only by about 5.80%.

So, what does this mean? It looks like the Bharat Jodo Yatra made a difference. It seems to have helped the INC do better in the places it visited, especially since they didn't do well there in 2018.

While the Yatra is seen as a factor in the improved performance, it's essential to note that correlation doesn't imply causation, and other factors might have contributed to the results.

Over the past three assembly elections, there's been a noticeable shift in the political landscape. The data reveals a continuous rise in the combined vote share of the two leading national parties, BJP and INC. As depicted in the graph, their collective vote share has consistently increased over the years.

But what does this mean for regional parties and their candidates?

As the national parties grow stronger, regional parties are facing a decline in their vote share. This trend might raise questions for voters who support local parties. If the trajectory continues, will their preferred regional party have the influence and representation they once had?

Moreover, candidates from these regional parties might find themselves at a crossroads. A dwindling vote share could mean reduced chances of electoral success, prompting them to reconsider their affiliations.

In essence, the rising dominance of national parties could reshape the political fabric, nudging voters and candidates to reevaluate their loyalties. As we move forward, it will be intriguing to see how this dynamic evolves and impacts the broader political spectrum.

The charts clearly show the consistent decline of the ENP metric with respect to both - vote share and number of seats, suggesting the idea of dwindling regional parties and the emergence of a bi-polarity in the political landscape.

Over the past three elections, the number of political parties contesting in Karnataka has notably increased. In 2013, there were 59 parties on the ballot. This number jumped to 91 in 2018 and remained consistent in 2023. At first glance, this seems paradoxical. If the BJP and INC are dominating the vote share, why are more parties choosing to enter the electoral race?

As a data scientist and not a political analyst, I can only offer my observations. Despite the dominance of the two major parties, the rise in the number of contesting parties might suggest that various groups are still eager to have their voices heard. This increase could reflect emerging local issues, regional aspirations, or new political movements aiming to influence the political discourse. It highlights that our democracy remains vibrant and dynamic, with multiple parties contributing to a diverse political landscape.

Conversely, the number of independent candidates has been steadily decreasing over the same period. While more parties are entering the fray, fewer individuals are choosing to run without party affiliation. From my perspective as a data scientist, this might indicate that candidates see greater value in aligning with an established party, even if it's a smaller one, rather than going it alone. This could be due to the support and resources that parties provide, making it challenging for independents to compete on their own. Ultimately, this trend suggests that parties are becoming the main avenue for political participation, with individuals preferring to be part of a collective rather than stand alone.

A Cycle of Major Party Swings

Between 2013 and 2018, a clear pattern emerged: the biggest shift was from the INC to the BJP, involving 58 constituencies. This dramatic turnover helped the BJP recover from its previous defeat and placed it in a stronger position by 2018. However, by the 2023 election, the direction of movement reversed, with 41 constituencies moving from the BJP to the INC. These swings suggest a repetitive cycle where the party in power often faces a strong wave of anti-incumbency, losing its advantage to the other main national player in the next election.

The Two-Party Axis at the Core

Although JD(S) and a group of “Others” (smaller parties and independents) exist, most significant turnovers occur between the two national parties: the INC and the BJP. For instance, while JD(S) and Others occasionally gain seats, the big story across both election cycles has been the back-and-forth exchange of constituencies between INC and BJP. This pattern shows that Karnataka's political battlefield, at its heart, is shaped like a tug-of-war between these two main contenders.

JD(S) Caught in the Crossfire

JD(S) consistently experiences a mix of gains and losses but struggles to break the cycle of losing more ground than it holds onto. Between 2013 and 2018, it both lost and gained seats to and from the INC and BJP, ending up more as a swing player than a stable force. A similar churn continued between 2018 and 2023, with JD(S) again conceding seats to both major parties. Rather than emerging as a solid third front, JD(S) remains on shifting sands, vulnerable to the intense competition between INC and BJP.

Diminishing “Others” and the Impact of Distribution

In the earlier cycle (2013-2018), smaller parties and independents surrendered several seats to the main trio. By 2018-2023, these “Others” became nearly irrelevant, losing or gaining very few constituencies. Coupled with the first-past-the-post system, the result is that even a modest lead in vote share for the leading party can translate into disproportionately large seat gains. As a result, focused campaigning and strategic concentration of votes play a major role in producing big swings, and the entire landscape now appears locked in a dynamic, two-party-dominated struggle.

Switching Parties Doesn't Always Switch Fortunes: In some constituencies, candidates attempted to change their political fortunes by switching parties, but the results remained unchanged. For example:

In Bailhongal, Jagadish C. Metgud ran as a BJP candidate in 2013, as an Independent in 2018, and returned to BJP in 2023. Yet, in all three elections, he ended up as the runner-up.